Monthly Prices Movement

  • Pulses prices remained firm half of the month at the major markets across the country. The sky rocketed price of all major Pulses is now cooling down as favorable weather is expected to lead to a bumper production.

  • Over the last 25 days, prices of Pulses in the wholesale markets in Maharashtra have been dropping by 20%. While area under cultivation of Pulses has seen an increase of 119%, wholesale prices has seen a dip, which many say might hamper permanent increase in cultivation area.

  • The government's decision to import huge quantity of Pulses and creating buffer stock further resulted in cooling of prices. Further recovery in prices is expected by tight local balance sheet, empty inventory pipeline with millers and improved festival demand.

Ground Report

  • The increase of Pulse MSP by Rs 600 per quintal in India has lead to the increase in area sown under Pulses and eventually higher production. Farmers have diverted to Pulses from Rice, coarse Grains and Soybean in many states.

  • The 35 percent of total cultivatable lands in Inida is used for growing Pulses across the country, and Centre has initiated steps for increasing the Pulses production.

  • According to the fourth advance estimate of food grain production for 2015-16, the output Pulses have fallen as compared to the last year. Pulses production has been revised downwards to 16.47 million tons in the fourth advance estimate from 17.06 million tons in the third advance estimate.

  • India has so far created around 0.17 million tons of buffer stock during the year. Initially the decision was to create buffer stock of 0.2 million tons of Pulses, it was later increased to 2 million tons.

  • India's total Pulses acreage as on August 26 increased 3.6 million hectares from last year to 13.942 million hectares. It is estimated that Pulses production may touch a record 20 million tons in 2016-17 crop year (JulyJune), the highest since 1957.

  • The domestic demand for Pulses in India is expected about 24 million tons, with shortfall is expected to be 3.2 million tons. India will import 5 million tons of Pulses from the African countries for the buffer stock.

  • India's total Pulses imports fell by almost 6.5 percent to 860000 tons in the first quarter of 2016-17 (April-June) due to low availability in the international market. India imported 4.58 mt of Pulses in 2014-15 at a cost of Rs.17,063 crore, or at an average price Rs.37 per kg.

  • India has imported around 14,555.66 metric tonnes of Pulses during April-May 2016-17 against 101,221.84 metric tonnes same period a year ago.

  • Tur production of India this year likely to be a record break on increased sowing. Tur production during last season was 2.48 million tonnes.

  • Tur area in India increased 46.91 percent to 5.12 million hectares and Urad acreage increased to 3.367 million hectares, according to latest government estimates. Area under Moong crosses 3.196 million hectares so far in the country.

  • Around 0.43 million hectares of crops were reported to be affected by recent spell of heavy rainfall and flood in Madhya Pradesh which has raised concerns about the crops.

  • India's Chana (Chickpea) imports during financial year 2015-16 has more than doubled due to lower domestic production amid back to back couple years of scanty rainfall along with increasing demand.

  • Commerce ministry of India stated that the country has imported 1,031,486.67 metric tonnes of Chana in FY 2015-16 meanwhile, imports of Chana during the fist couple months of current FY April-May 2016-17 dropped 85 percent compared to same period a year ago.

Policies

  • India government has ordered to further import 90000 tons of Pulses, including 40000 tons of Masur, 20000 tons of Tur, 20000 tons of desi Chana and 10000 tons of Urad for buffer stock. India's total imports of Pulses for buffer stock is now 176000 tons, procurement of Pulses also reached 120000 tons.

  • India is planning to grow Pulses in Brazil to meet the growing domestic demand. Brazil has offered to do captive farming of Pulses to meet the growing demand in India. India has already signed an MoU with Mozambique to import Pulses from African nations, and also agreed terms to importing Pulses from Myanmar.

  • The central government of India is planning to sell the Pulses from buffer stock at subsidized rates through big retailers or e-commerce as most states are unwilling to lift the Pulses at subsidized rates offered by the Centre.

  • The government agencies have so far procured 0.14 million tons of Pulses and another 59000 tons have been contracted for imports. The government has also decided to import another 0.1 million tons of Arhar and Masoor.

  • The Department of Consumer Affairs has requested State Governments repeatedly to lift the Tur and Urad from the buffer stock for distribution not more than Rs. 120/kg.

Global

  • USDA stated that Australia Desi Chickpeas is expected for a record crop, which is estimated at around 1.4 million tons and Dry Edible Pea production is projected to increase by 18 percent to reach 22.3 million hundred weight (cwt).

  • Lentil production of Australia is projected at 11.5 million cwt a 118 percent increase over the 2015 estimate by USDA.

  • Canada expect Lentils production to increase by 36.3 percent to 3.2 million tons in 2016. Extremely dry and wet weather conditions in different parts of the country have played a significant role in the production expectations reported in the July survey.

  • Burma bean and Pulse exports in the first quarter of 2016 (January-March) dropped 41% to 382,284 metric tons mainly due to higher Matpe bean prices and limited supplies even though there was good demand from India, according to USDA.

Outlook

  • Pulses story has taken a U-turn. Till a few weeks back, the prices were so high that the average Indian had to shell out a premium for Pulses. Now, prices are trading lower which is a concern for the Indian government.

  • Chana failed to attract demand amid weak sentiment due to bearish trend in other Pulses as buyers were sideline. Traders and millers have sufficient stocks at present as they had sourced Chana earlier anticipating price will improve ahead supported by festive buying, but that has not happened.

  • A temporary rise can be seen in Chana prices ahead of festive demand, however any major rise may attract fresh selling as Australia crop is likely to start reaching Indian ports from October-end or early November. Further sowing of Chana likely to increase this season due to good rainfall in growing belts followed by attractive rates for the commodity.

  • Some movement in Chana is likely to appear near Diwali otherwise demand is low at upper level. Some import consignments are also to land in India at Rs 40-55/Kg.

  • Consecutive years of deficit rain cut supplies, leading to higher imports and an unnoticed spike in prices, is the divergence between retail and wholesale prices, raising the question if retailers are responsible for jacking up prices.

  • Lemon Tur prices of Myanmar before 1 month was near around $1375 per tonne which is now hovering near $1140/tonne on expectation of record break production this season. Indian buyers said to be allegedly defaulted in Tur trade from Burma due to steep slump in prices, lackluster domestic demand and bearish outlook ahead due to substantial rise in Kharif Tur sowing.

  • Wholesalers are not interested to increase their stocks at present as they had earlier bought Tur dal in sufficient quantity anticipating prices would improve in the month of August-September, but since market outlook seems to be bearish ahead, they are releasing their stocks.

  • Tur prices may record some gain in the near term, but since overseas supply from Africa is expected from next month onwards followed by bright prospects for domestic Tur production, stockists may opt to get out at the higher level.

  • At present millers are the main buyer of Urad and Tur, however only 20-25% of millers are active in the country as they are incurring huge losses after recent steep fall. Higher sowing of Urad and Tur can help tame prices which shot up over the past year due to deficit rains impacting production in 2014 and 2015.

  • Tur hoarder, whether it is millers, traders or stockists will prefer to liquidate its stocks in case of relief rally as they anticipate more steep fall once new domestic Tur crop harvest commence. Traders and millers are expecting prices of new domestic Tur crop around or below Rs 5,000/100 Kg, which starts from November end.

  • Sellers are active to liquidate their existing stocks at higher rates anticipating weak tone ahead as Urad growing areas received good monsoon rains raising hopes of improved yield, at the same time regular supply from Burma is also expected to escalate pressure. Prices have been weak due to fresh arrivals of new domestic crop in Indian states of Maharashtra and Karnataka.

  • Urad output in the state is also likely to increase this year as farmers have shifted to the pulse from Cotton and Sugarcane due to lucrative prices observed in past.

  • New Urad crop arrivals are likely to rise from the first week of September. Also, farmers in Indian state of Madhya Pradesh have taken interest in Urad this season.

  • There are reports of some damages to the Urad crop due to floods in some parts of Madhya Pradesh but limited around 5%-7%. If weather remains favorable for the entire season, Urad crop is likely to be 50-60% higher on year.

  • Masoor prices have been trending lower tracking weak trend in Tur prices. There is less demand from the millers and retailers which weighed on prices. At present, domestic markets are not witnessing supply pressure of Masoor from overseas markets.

  • Because of a bumper harvest, the retail price of Moong dal has dropped by 3.79%, while that of Urad Dal has come down by 6.1% recently. Tur and Masoor dal has become cheaper by 5.14% and 0.75%.

  • New crop of some varieties like Moong has also reached the market and it is selling at Rs 58 per kg. In the next few months, new crops of other varieties will also reach leading to further reduction in prices.

  • Moong prices have been declining since last fortnight and prices further likely to fall in the days to come. Moong sowing has increased by 37 per cent and it is expected that production will be good. Moong prices have slipped below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) levels in several markets triggering a demand from distressed growers for market intervention.

  • Government had announced an MSP of Rs.5,225/quintal, including a bonus of Rs.425 for the Kharif season this year for Moong which has encouraged farmers to go for more Moong sowing. Currently, Moong prices are hovering near Rs.4200-Rs.5200 per quintal.

  • Standing crop condition of Moong is good in the Indian states of Maharashtra and Karnataka and production is expected good which may bring down prices lower. Market arrivals of the new Moong (Green gram) crop begins in Indian state Karnataka and expected to arrive new Moong crop in Indian state of Rajasthan by next month which will pressurize prices.

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