Monthly Prices Movement

  • Spices complex showed a mixed trend so far at the various markets of India with Jeera prices remaining firm throughout the month with Jeera prices gained due to good physical and export demand. Black Pepper prices traded mixed as demand matched supply.

  • Red Chilli and Turmeric prices remained weak amid higher sowing progress data. Cardamom prices witnessed a firm trend as the crop expectation is low and festival demand is coming up.

Ground Report

  • India’s Red Chilli production may touch a new peak in India next year as area under the crop has risen sharply. Chilli acreage in Telangana increased 228.57 percent to 23000 hectares, Andhra Pradesh Chilli acreage increased to 44000 hectares.

  • Chilli exports of India in 2015-16 went up marginally and value increased 12 per cent over the previous year to about Rs 4,000 crore due to high demand from China as the country is facing 15 per cent shortfall in output.

  • Turmeric acreage of India is also seen an increase as acreage increased in Telangana by15.38 percent to 45000 hectares, which is the major Turmeric growing region. Lower stocks, good export and domestic demand supports the largest Turmeric producer in the world.

  • Turmeric supply from India for 2015-16 is expected at 3.57 lakh tonnes against the consumption demand of 3.46 lakh tonnes, leaving stocks of mere 0.11 lakh tonnes.

  • Cardamom export of India in 2016-17 expected to drop due to expectations of less availability on higher domestic consumption and higher prices. Meanwhile, domestic Cardamom consumption of India is expected to be about 12,000-15,000 tonnes. Small Cardamom exports rose by 25 percent during April-June 2016.

  • Pepper production in India is expected to decline due to the weather conditions in the major growing regions in India and is expected decline of about 15000 tons this season. Pepper imports could go up further this year as 25% decline is expected in domestic production.

  • Illegal Pepper from Kerala and Karnataka is hitting the markets as the festive season is about to start in the North Indian States. Majority of the stock is arriving from Karnataka, about 90 percent of State's Pepper production is smuggled to North Indian States.

  • India's Jeera exports rose nearly 25% to around 50,000 tonnes in Apr-Jul from 40,000 tn in the year-ago period due to good demand from China and Bangladesh. The increase in exports is supported by the high demand and low availability from other major exporters such as Iran, Turkey and in Syria. The new crop in Syria and Turkey is harvested in August-September which has given a boost to Indian Jeera market.

  • Improved rains in the major growing regions are provoking hopes of good Jeera crop in the coming season due to the adequate soil moisture.

  • India's Cumin Seed production during current season was projected lower at 0.25 million tons against 0.33 million tons a year ago due to adverse weather condition during growth stages.

  • India shipped 41,000 metric tons of Cumin Seed during April-June, up 55 percent from previous year, according to Spices Board. Cumin Seed exports during the first couple of month of current financial year April-May (2016-17) rose 82 percent at 33,938 metric tons.

  • India's Nutmeg and Mace exports rose 74 percent to 1,130 tonnes during April-June 2016.

Policies

  • Spices Board stated of India stated that value of Spice exports from India during April-June 2016 rose 9 percent to 41.59 billion from 38.22 billion last year.

  • India's Spice exports during April-June 2016 rose 8 percent to 226,225 tonnes from 209,148 tonnes a year ago, as per Spices Board stated of India.

  • Spices Board exports data for the month of April-June revealed that country has shipped 41,000 tonnes Jeera and Turmeric exports rose 20% at 29,000 metric tonnes year-on-year.

Global

  • Vietnam exported 8772 tons of Pepper to India during January-July this year which is a rise of 32 percent compared to previous year. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of Pepper and is currently the cheapest source for the spice.
  • Illegal Guatemalan Cardamom market is being hit in the Indian markets which is being mixed with the local variety of small Cardamom as the prices in Indian market is high.

  • China is expecting 15% shortfall in Red Chilli output this year which will make the country to open doors for more imports.

Outlook

  • Jeera demand in the recent times whether domestic or overseas is dull. Demand expected to remain steady in near term, but long term outlook is bullish due to lower production in the country this season. The stocks in the country is poor due to lower production this season, which has prompted stockists and farmers to hold their produce as they anticipate Jeera prices improve sooner or later.

  • Demand in Turmeric is very thin and only needy buyers are active, but ahead of many festivals in September-October demand will improve sooner or later.

  • The upcoming festive season may bring good news for Turmeric farmers as it heavily used in many rituals and decorations done for festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi, Ayudha Puja and Diwali.

  • The price of good quality Turmeric is likely to hover around Rs.8,000 to 8,500 per quintal in the Erode regulated market till September. There are chances of the Turmeric prices crossing this bar in the ensuing months, because the festival season continues till October-end. One lakh tonnes of Turmeric is stored in many warehouses in Erode, as traders expect a better price for it.

  • Red Chilli stock in Guntur estimated around 3.5 million bags (45 kg each), which is sufficient to fulfill domestic and export demand, though the ending stocks at the season-end likely to fall to lowest in recent years.

  • Red Chilli prices touched an all-time high of Rs 150 per kg a few months ago, which has prompted growers in the main producing regions of Andhra and Karnataka to go for increased sowing. Prices spurred by demand from China and a 15% shortfall in output from the previous year are now hovering between Rs 110 and Rs 140 per kg.

  • Increased Red Chilli sowing data likely to keep its prices under check in the days to come, however, recent export data may provide some support to prices though exports data are unchanged.

  • Almost all the inventories held in various centers are believed to have been exhausted. At the same time, there is a shortage of material following a long delay in the harvesting of the next Cardamom crop, which is estimated to be around 50% of the last crop.

  • With small Cardamom prices touching Rs 1,000 per kg after a gap of nearly a decade following output slump, traders are complaining of an influx of Guatemalan Cardamom illegally into the country to mix with the local variety.

  • The price of Black Pepper is likely to touch an all-time high by the end of October this year. Considering the overall production and market information at the prevailing demand supply situation, the price is expected to reach Rs.720 to Rs.760 a kg in October as against Rs.700 a kg in Kochi terminal market at the end of the August.

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