Turmeric futures (Nov) is likely to remain stable & above its support near 7100 levels. At present good quality stocks in the country is very limited, which is likely to provide support to the turmeric prices. However, on the contrary not much of an upside can be seen in the counter as it may face resistance near 7300 levels, the reason being is the bearish fundamentals of higher production against last year due to better sowing this season. Currently, the weather has turned clear in turmeric growing belts after recent rainfall, which is likely to be beneficial for the crop and damage to the crop is likely to minimum against what was anticipated earlier. Turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh as on October 5 reached at 17,000 hectares against 15,000 last year, whereas in Telangana area stood at 46,000 hectares versus 43,000 hectares a year ago same period.
Cardamom futures (Nov) has given a close in the red zone last week with higher open interest for the fourth consecutive week. This shows that the in days to come, the bearish sentiments may take a toll over the counter which can drag the counter towards 1090 levels. The harvesting is in full swing now in all the estates and according to the trade in Bodinayakannur 75 per cent of the capsules is arriving from the new crop.
Jeera futures (Nov) may take support near 16500-16400 levels & the downside may remain capped. At present, the stocks of cumin in the country are lower & the demand may improve before the Diwali & onset of winter season.
Soybean futures (Nov) may trade with a downside bias in the range of 3080-3160 levels. At the spot markets, soybean prices are extending weakness on rising arrivals & also the weather is getting clear raising hopes for harvesting to speed up. In addition to it, arrivals of raw material is rising due to farmers selling amid financial requirement ahead of Diwali festival. Further higher moisture content supplies of around 15-18 percent has kept stockiest sideline or promoted them to opt wait and watch and may start buying when the moisture level comes around 10-12%. On CBOT, U.S Soybean futures (Nov) will possibly consolidate in the range of $9.30-$9.75 levels. The gains may remain capped due to projection of higher supplies from a record-large U.S. crop. The latest report from USDA, U.S soybean production is forecast at 4,269 million bushels, up 68 million mainly on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from the September forecast. Soybean supplies for 2016/17 are projected 70 million bushels above last month with slightly higher beginning stocks adding to higher production.
Mustard futures (Nov) is expected to trade in the range of 4480-4580 levels. The fundamentals of rising demand for mustard oil cake & narrowing crushing disparity may provide support to the counter.
Refined soy oil futures (Nov) will possibly gains further & test 672 levels supported by strong festive month demand, followed by winter ahead and weak rupee. CPO futures (Oct) may trade in the range if 530-540 levels. There are on expectations that before winters, the demand may slow down as it solidifies in cold weather and the buyers will possibly shift to other vegetable oil.
Kapas futures (Apr) may face resistance near 900 levels. The cotton prices are hovering in the negative territory at the spot markets as the arrivals are steadily improving. In southern India, the mills have opted to wait and watch for further decline in the price and expectation of good quality of cotton stock with nominal amount of moisture content to hit the market. Similar situation is being witnessed in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh as even the quality was gradually improving, but moisture is still above normal. Prices may more or less remain on the bearish side as further improvement in supply will weigh on prices unless demand from mills improves which at present is muted.
Sugar futures (Dec) is likely to consolidate in the range of 3520-3580 levels. The government measures to keep prices of the sweetener under control this festive season have pounded buying sentiment in future market, however, spot prices have improved in the wholesale market due to festive demand but stock limit on sugar traders and mills as well continues supply pressure. On the international market, the market participants are cautious ahead of expected bearish cane crush data for the second half of September from Brazil's Center-South region, on reports of favorable weather.
Guar seed (Nov) may remain below 3595 levels & the downside may get extended towards 3400 levels. The arrivals of guar seed from the ongoing kharif season have started in some key markets of Rajasthan and Haryana. Currently, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 100 kg) of guar seed have been arriving every day in Rajasthan's Sri Ganganagar market and daily supplies are likely to peak to 20,000 bags in next 15-20 days.
Courtesy: Smc Comtrade