Fresh selling seen in NCDEX Ref Soya Oil; Support seen at 638
Commodity Online | August 30 2016
UPDATED 11:44:38 IST

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Ref Soya Oil on NCDEX settled down by -1.05% at 639.7 on weak demand and on expectation of higher supply. Meanwhile, according to USDA weekly export sales report till Aug 18 is around, exports jumped by 79% to 10,700 tons from the previous week but down by 48% from prior 4 week average. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) projected soybean supply during Oct 2015-July 16 season climbed to 7.541 million tons on expectation of higher yield. SOPA projected total consumption at 6.441 million ton (sowing 1.1 million ton, export and direct consumption at 132,000 ton and crushing at 5.1 million ton) leaving a carry forward balance of 323,000 ton, the release added.

According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) August estimates, U.S 2016/17 soy oil end stocks fell by 8.1 percent m-o-m to 1,755 million lbs from 1,910 million lbs in July estimate. Opening stocks are reduced to 1,950 million lbs from 2,375 million lbs in July estimate. Production of soy oil in 2016/17 is increased to 22,405 million lbs v/s 22,235 million lbs in July estimate. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. July soybean crush fell to 143.715 million bushels from 145.050 million bushels in June, down by 1 percent m-o-m.

Crush of soybean in July 2015 was 145.227 million bushels. Production of soy oil in U.S. in July fell marginally to 1.687 billion lbs from 1.692 billion lbs in June 2016. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, Soy Oil was steady at 633.65 rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.71% to settled at 55860 while prices down -6.8 rupee, now Ref Soya oil is getting support at 638 and below same could see a test of 635 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 645, a move above could see prices testing 649.

Trading Ideas:
--Ref Soya Oil trading range for the day is 635-649.
--Ref Soy Oil prices ended with losses on weak demand and on expectation of higher supply.
--Meanwhile, according to USDA weekly export sales report till Aug 18 is around, exports jumped by 79% to 10,700 tons from the previous week.
--According to USDA August estimates, U.S 2016/17 soy oil end stocks fell by 8.1 percent m-o-m to 1,755 million lbs.
--At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 633.65 rupees per 10 kgs.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities