The recovery phase of turmeric futures (Oct) seems to be temporary as it may face resistance near 7300 levels. Despite of the gains of the yellow spice on the national bourse, the spot prices have not yet showed any upside momentum & the reason is lack of physical demand. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger variety went for Rs.7699-8569/quintal; the root variety Rs.7388-7814. Secondly, the open interests are not showing giving positive signal. During the past week turmeric futures have gained more than 5%, but on the contrary open interests have declined by 9.46%, which is indicating only short covering & in the coming days market participants may book profits at higher levels.
Cardamom futures (Oct) may take support near 1170 levels. At the auctions, cardamom prices are showing a firmer trend as the averages are crossing Rs.1000 a kg again on good demand amid tight supply. The maximum price stood at Rs.1260/kg. A bullish sentiment has surfaced following reports of a sharp fall in output of the crop during the current season. Added to this, inventories in the upcountry markets have reportedly been exhausted, resulting in fresh buying to replenish stocks to meet the Diwali demand.
Jeera futures (Oct) may trade in the range of 17550-17970 levels. On the international markets, the arrivals have starting hitting from Syria & Turkey. The buyers have turned to these destinations as it is available at competitive rates. Back at home, the stocks of cumin seed are tight and lowest compared with recent years, which is likely to prevent any sharp fall in prices from here on.
Soybean futures (Oct) is expected to take some support near 3200 levels & the downside may remain capped taking positive cues from the forecast of lower output. USDA has forecasted that India’s soybean production for 2016/17 at 9.7 million tonnes, down 15% from last month but up 38% from last year. Yield is forecasted at 0.85 tonnes per hectare, down 12% from last month and down 5.6% the 5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 11.4 million hectares, down 2.5% from last month because wet of planting weather. Growing conditions in the main soybean areas are deteriorating. In 15-20 days, arrivals will begin in full swing. On CBOT, The most active soybean futures rose 0.6 percent to $9.71-3/4 a bushel, near the session-high of $9.76 a bushel - the strongest since Sept. 12. Soybean prices firmed 1.6 percent on Friday.
Mustard futures (Oct) will possibly take support near 4640 levels & remain stable. Mustard seed prices have started gaining grounds from 1-year low at the benchmark Jaipur market on some fresh buying inquiry at the lower level as demand for palm slows in winter as the same solidifies in cold weather. Refined soy oil futures (Oct) may face resistance near 655 levels.
CPO futures (Sept) may consolidate in the range of 563-573 levels. Overall import of vegetable oils during first ten months of the current oil year 2015-16 (Nov-Aug) stood at 121.65 lakh tonnes compared to 117.25 lakh tonnes a year ago, according to The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA).
The upside momentum in Kapas futures (Apr) will resume only if trades above 925 levels. In days to come, the counter is expected to remain stable taking support near 900 levels. USDA has forecasted 2016/17 India’s cotton production at 26.5 million 480-pound bales, down 0.5 million bales from last month but up slightly from 2015/16. Harvested area decreased marginally to 10.9 million hectares, and down 8.4 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 529 kilograms per hectare, on par with the 5-year average. U.S cotton is expected to take support near 65.35 cents/lb. At the spot markets, cotton prices are gaining due to fresh buying from mills coupled with on-going tight supply. Mills are purchasing cotton to meet their immediate requirements as the stocks in their warehouse are near to exhaustion. Also, they are anticipating further rise in price due to tight supply. With forecast for rain in the cotton belt in the United States likely to support prices at least in the near term.
Sugar futures (Oct) is expected to remain firm taking support near 3545levels. It is reported that sugar prices firmed up by Rs 50 per quintal to trade at three-year high at the wholesale market in the national capital supported by Widening of the gap between demand and supply, also with strong demand from bulk consumers for the festive season. The closing stocks are likely to be lower than the normal sugar stock level of around 6.4 million tonnes & there might be a 2.6-2.8 million tonnes in SY2017.
Guar seed futures (Oct) is likely to face resistance near 3800 levels & witness profit booking from higher levels. At the spot markets, stockiest are out of the market at present, however they will enter in the market with new crop supply, which is expected from next month.
Courtesy: Smc Comtrade