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MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1258-1289.6
Commodity Online | September 19 2019
UPDATED 10:20:02 IST

NCDEX Mustard Seed likely to move in a range of 4092-4220

MCX Crude Palm Oil under short covering; Support seen at 553.7

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1188.5-1219.9

MCX Aluminium may trade between 133.1-134.1 levels

NCDEX Ref. Soya Oil under fresh buying; Resistance seen at 758

Technically Mentha Oil market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 0.33% to settled at 1207.

Now MCX Mentha Oil is getting support at 1263.7 and below same could see a test of 1258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1279.5, a move above could see prices testing 1289.6.

Mentha Oil on MCX settled down by 0.94% at 1269.5 as there has been an increase in the arrival of mentha. Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.

Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year. It is likely to touch ~3 lakh ha—as per Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (CIMAP). It should be noted that this year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT stood slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT productions seen in between 2013 and 2018.

Therefore expectations of a significant jump in production over last year due to is ruled out.Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.The output has not risen in past few years with India producing ~80% of global production and exporting ~75% of its output.

Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices.The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1427.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.4.40/-.

Trading Ideas:
--Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1258-1289.6.
--Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1427.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.4.40/-.
--Mentha Oil settled down as there has been an increase in the arrival of mentha.
--Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.
--There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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