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MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1268.1-1308.1
Commodity Online | July 26 2019
UPDATED 10:20:33 IST

NCDEX Mustard Seed likely to move in a range of 4092-4220

MCX Crude Palm Oil under short covering; Support seen at 553.7

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1188.5-1219.9

MCX Aluminium may trade between 133.1-134.1 levels

NCDEX Ref. Soya Oil under fresh buying; Resistance seen at 758

Technically Mentha Oil market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20.7% to settled at 997 while prices down 8.2 rupees.

Now MCX Mentha Oil is getting support at 1275.9 and below same could see a test of 1268.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1295.9, a move above could see prices testing 1308.1.

Mentha Oil on MCX settled down by 0.63% at 1283.7 on late profit booking after prices seen supported as rains in UP could will have adverse impact on the crop sowing. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2018 versus last year.

It is likely to touch 3 lakh ha—as per Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (CIMAP). It should be noted that this year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT stood slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT productions seen in between 2013 and 2018. Therefore expectations of a significant jump in production over last year due to is ruled out.

Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year. The output has not risen in past few years with India producing ~80% of global production and exporting 75% of its output. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices.

The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1424.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.4.20/-.

Trading Ideas:
--Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1268.1-1308.1.
--Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1424.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.4.20/-.
--Mentha Oil dropped on late profit booking after prices seen supported as rains in UP could will have adverse impact on the crop sowing.
--Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year.
--This year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT stood slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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