MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1286-1327.4
Commodity Online | September 12 2019
UPDATED 10:20:05 IST

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1258-1289.6

MCX Aluminium may trade between 138.1-140.1 levels

NCDEX Chana under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 4001

MCX Nickel likely to move in a range of 1205.6-1243

MCX Cotton under short covering; Support seen at 19580

Technically Mentha Oil market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 2.54% to settled at 1265 while prices down 10.9 rupees.

Now MCX Mentha Oil is getting support at 1293.4 and below same could see a test of 1286 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1314.1, a move above could see prices testing 1327.4.

Mentha Oil on MCX settled down by 0.83% at 1300.7 as pressure seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.

It is likely to touch ~3 lakh ha—as per Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (CIMAP). It should be noted that this year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT stood slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT productions seen in between 2013 and 2018. Therefore expectations of a significant jump in production over last year due to is ruled out.

Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year. The output has not risen in past few years with India producing ~80% of global production and exporting ~75% of its output. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices.

The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year.  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1431.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.5.10/-.

Trading Ideas:
--Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1286-1327.4.
--Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1431.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.5.10/-.
--Mentha Oil settled down as pressure seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.
--The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh.
--Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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