MCX Mentha Oil market under long liquidation
Commodity Online | November 08 2016
UPDATED 10:46:50 IST

NCDEX Chana under long liquidation; Support seen at 4100

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 978.4-1005.4

MCX Cotton under short covering; Support seen at 15870

MCX Aluminium may trade between 136-137.8 levels

NCDEX Jeera under short covering; Resistance seen at 13820

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.82% at 958.7 on profit booking after prices gained on lower output estimates from the major producing.  Further, sufficient stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions, too added pressure on Mentha oil prices. Spurt in the prices of mentha oil would raise cost of production for consumers industries which may prompt producers to revise prices of their final product upwards. Interestingly, however, Mentha oil being a small component of entire basket of raw materials, its consumer industries might absorb price rise for some time.

Initially, India’s mentha oil output was estimated to remain lower this year from 32,000 tonnes produced during last year. But, rainfalls later improved overall scenario that got worsened with scorching heat waves in May. Hence, overall mentha oil output for 2016-17 is now revised upwards at 34,000 tonnes. Interestingly, India possesses massive carryover stocks from the last year which may cap price rise. Meanwhile, mint product exports have declined substantially from the export basket by 18 per cent in terms of volume and 4 per cent in terms of value year-on-year. Exports of mint products stood at 21,150 tonne (worth Rs 2,577.59 crore) in FY 2016 as against 25,750 tonne (valued at Rs 2,689.25 crore) in FY 2015. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 200 Drums(1-drum-180kg), up by 200 Drums(1-drum-180kg) from previous trading day.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1069.50 per 1kg. Spot prices is down by Rs.-1.80/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.86% to settled at 4359 while prices down -7.9 rupee, now Mentha Oil is getting support at 949.2 and below same could see a test of 939.8 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.9, a move above could see prices testing 989.2.

Trading Ideas:
--Menthaoil trading range for the day is 939.8-989.2.
--Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1069.50 per 1kg. Spot prices is down by Rs.-1.80/-.
--Mentha oil ended with losses on profit booking after prices gained on lower output estimates from the major producing.
--Further, sufficient stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions, too added pressure on mentha oil prices.
--At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 200 Drums(1-drum-180kg), up by 200 Drums(1-drum-180kg) from previous trading day.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities