MCX Mentha Oil may trade between 1271.9-1307.9 levels
Commodity Online | September 16 2019
UPDATED 10:20:38 IST

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 1147.6-1179.6

MCX Aluminium under short covering; Support seen at 136.9

MCX Nickel under long liquidation; Support seen at 928

MCX Zinc under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 164.4

NCDEX Chana under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 4022

Technically Mentha Oil market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 0.85% to settled at 1288 while prices down 2.3 rupees.

Now MCX Mentha Oil is getting support at 1281.8 and below same could see a test of 1271.9 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1299.8, a move above could see prices testing 1307.9. 

Mentha Oil on MCX settled down 0.18% at 1291.6 as there has been an increase in the arrival of mentha. Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months.

There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year. It is likely to touch ~3 lakh ha—as per Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (CIMAP). It should be noted that this year’s production expectation of 38500- 39000 MT stood slightly above the average production of 36,968 MT productions seen in between 2013 and 2018.

Therefore expectations of a significant jump in production over last year due to is ruled out.Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.

The output has not risen in past few years with India producing ~80% of global production and exporting ~75% of its output. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices.The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh.

Trading Ideas:
--Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1271.9-1307.9.
--Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1430.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.2.90/-.
--Mentha Oil settled down as there has been an increase in the arrival of mentha.
--Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months.
--There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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