MCX Natural Gas may trade between 195.2-209.2 levels
Commodity Online | September 23 2016
UPDATED 13:48:36 IST

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Natural Gas on MCX settled down -1.67% at 200.60 on profit booking after trades booked there long positions as Natural gas prices rose to a recent high on Tuesday and Wednesday on forecasts for continued warm weather and higher demand for natural gas through the end of this month. But summer’s high temperatures are pretty much behind now and more gas is likely to be headed for storage. The concern is that natural gas could threaten the country’s physical storage limit of around 4.3 trillion cubic feet by the time the winter heating season begins.

Meanwhile yesterday the US EIA reported that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 52bcf for the week ending September 16. The five-year average for the week is an injection of around 83 billion cubic feet, and last year’s storage addition for the week totaled 105 billion cubic feet. Natural gas inventories rose by 62 billion cubic feet in the week ending September 9. While High pressure continues to dominate the southern US with very warm highs of upper 80s to 90s.

A weather system will bring showers and cooling over the west-central US late in the week where highs will only reach the upper-50s and 60s to drive light early season heating demand. Cooling will then spread into the southern Plains and Texas this weekend to ease current hot conditions. Overall, nat gas demand will be LOW over the northern US and moderate to high over the southern US. Technically market is under long liquidation and getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 195.2 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.9, a move above could see prices testing 209.2.

Trading Ideas:
--Natural Gas trading range for the day is 195.2-209.2.
--Natural Gas dropped on on profit booking after trades booked there long positions after recent high.
--EIA recorded an increase of 52bcf, lower than both the expected increase of 59bcf and the 62bcf gain the previous week.
--Demand conditions have remained favorable with the current spell of hot weather continuing.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities