Mentha Oil likely to trade with a bearish bias; Turmeric may trade with a downside bias
Commodity Online | September 26 2016
UPDATED 09:30:51 IST

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 931.1-948.7

MCX Cotton under fresh buying; Support seen at 17950

MCX Aluminium may trade between 141.5-143.9 levels

NCDEX Jeera under fresh selling; Resistance seen at 14140

MCX Nickel likely to move in a range of 1040.5-1072.9

Turmeric futures (Oct) will possibly trade with a downside bias in the range of 6800-6920 levels. In Erode market demand is limited with upcountry buyers mostly sidelined. Exporters are buying at present hand-to-mouth. This phenomenon is due to projections of higher output. Turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh as on September 14 stood at 14,000 hectares,, unchanged from last year, while in Telangana it reached was art 46,000 hectares as compared to 41,000 hectares a year ago. The arrival of turmeric for sale is decreasing every day as many farmers are not bringing their produce for sale for want of higher price. The dispatch of turmeric to North India has been affected by Karnataka issue and the stocks are piling up with traders and farmers.

Cardamom futures (Oct) may take support near 1115 levels & the downside may remain capped supported by increasing gap between demand & supply. This season, the total output is estimated at 40% lesser from last season. Total output might come to around 15,000 tonnes as against 35,000 tonnes last year. The drought this year has devastated the plants of these growers who constitute 20 per cent with a contribution of 20-25% to the total annual output.

The downtrend of Jeera futures (Oct) is likely to persist in days to come as it can test 16900 levels. Overall business activity in the spot markets of Unjha & Rajkot is dull as there are few takers at the current price levels. At this time international buyers are moving to Syrian and Turkish origin cumin due to lower prices.

Soybean futures (Oct) may witness a consolidation in the range of 3150-3230 levels. The market participants are now cautious & estimating the accurate production figures this season & also keeping a close watch of the harvesting pace of U. S soybeans. According to Govt. first advance estimate released the projected soybean output is at 142.2 lakh tonne of soybean. On the demand side, expectations are rising for export demand for soybean meal may improve with good crop size coupled with better than expected yields. On CBOT, U.S. soybeans edged higher on Monday recovering from a 10-day low hit earlier in the session as bumper harvests and favorable harvesting weather forecasts weighed on the oilseed. The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose 0.13 percent to $9.56-1/4 a bushel, having earlier hit a session low of $9.49-1/4 a bushel - the lowest since September 16. Soybeans closed down 2.2 percent on Friday.

Mustard futures (Oct) will possibly descend towards 4650-4750 levels, if breaks the support near 4650 levels. At the spot markets, mustard seed prices are pressured by disparity in crushing, which continued to remain negative due to lower sales of mustard oil prices at higher level. Mustard seed prices are also following soybean market, as new harvest and arrivals for rival oilseed is expected to start anytime and market will be flooded with big supply of Kharif oilseed.

Refined soy oil futures (Oct) will possibly trade in the range of 655-665 levels. CPO futures (Oct) is likely to trade in the range of 575-590 levels. The fundamentals highlight that Malaysian palm oil stock seen lower than expected in September & in domestic market the strong festive demand may favor edible oil prices.

Kapas futures (Apr) will possibly take support near 885 levels, taking positive cues from the positive fundamentals prevailing on international as well as the domestic markets. The cotton prices of new crop is quoting higher at various major spot markets as buyers are preferring to purchase new cotton due to low inventory with them. The monsoon has brought cheers for cotton farmers with prices touching a four-year end-of-season high of Rs 48,500 per candy of 356 kg. The previous high was Rs 47,800 per candy in September 2013. On the international market, cotton futures are trading six-week high, supported by a weaker dollar, strong exports sales data & some concern over weather conditions affecting crops in US. Rains have led to crop damage in cotton producing regions in the U.S. Midwest and are expected to hurt the natural fiber crop in West Texas next week.

Sugar futures (Oct) may turn sour as the downside may get extended towards 3450 levels due to imposition of higher margins on the long side. Special margin of 10% (in cash) on long side has been imposed on October 2016 contract & special margin of 25% (in cash) on long side of all running contracts (other than October 2016 contract) and yet to be launched contracts. The above margins will be in addition to the existing margins and is effective from September 22, 2016.

Mentha Oil futures (Oct) is expected to trade with a bearish bias & can tumble down to test 880 levels. Demand in Mentha Oil is said to be poor from overseas markets, whereas domestic consumption were also said to slow.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade