Mustard may trade with a downside bias; Coriander likely to trade sideways
Commodity Online | August 17 2016
UPDATED 09:51:06 IST

NCDEX Chana under short covering; Support seen at 4114

MCX Cotton under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 15920

NCDEX Jeera under fresh selling; Support seen at 13560

NCDEX Turmeric under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 5370

NCDEX Mustard Seed under long liquidation; Support seen at 4470

Turmeric futures (Sept) is expected to witness an extended downside & test 7500-7400 levels. Spot turmeric prices decreased on Tuesday by Rs.200 a quintal at Erode markets. Only 4,000 bags arrived for sale and the traders quoted decreased price and procured 60 per cent stocks. Regarding the price, the finger turmeric decreased by Rs.200 a quintal, while the root variety by Rs.170. The good quality finger variety fetched Rs.9,166-9,534 a quintal. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger variety was sold at Rs.7,444-9,534 a quintal and the root variety Rs.7,299-8,477.

The bull-run in Cardamom futures (Sept) will possibly continue as it can test 1080-1100 levels, supported by strong fundamentals. All the inventories held in various centers except those in the suburbs of Delhi are believed to have been exhausted. At the same time, there is a shortage of material following a long delay in the harvesting of the next crop, which is estimated to be around 50 per cent of the last crop. Good colour 8mm bold has fetched Rs.1,348 a kg today, trade sources claimed. Good colour bulk from the new crop was being traded at Rs.850-1,000 a kg.

Jeera futures (Sept) will possibly fall towards 17875 levels. Cumin seed prices weakened in the major markets of Rajasthan amid muted demand and selling pressure. Arrival and buying are very poor in the market. No major buying or local demand has noticed.

Coriander futures (Sept) is expected to trade sideways in the range of 7670-7970 levels. Demand in the spot market is sluggish at present mainly due to higher supply of lower grade. Farmers are stockists are releasing mostly their inferior stocks at lower prices, while holding premium quality stocks in the anticipation of better rates in the days to come.

Soybean futures (Oct) is looking bearish & the downside may get extended towards 3400 levels. Soybean sowing has improved and this year production and yields likely to be better than expected. Soymeal prices traded in range of Rs 32,200-35,200 against Rs 32,400-35,200 on previous session in major markets of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Whereas, soybean prices at spot market traded in range of Rs 3,000-3,800 in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra against Rs 3,300-3,740. On CBOT, Chicago soybeans eased for a second session on Wednesday as expectations of near record U.S. production pressured the market, but strong demand from top importer China limited losses. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday said 72 percent of the soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, steady from a week ago and above last year's 63 percent.

Mustard futures (Sept) will possibly trade with a downside bias in the range of 4740-4840 levels. Demand in mustard seed has turned slow due to huge disparity to crushers and decreased demand for mustard oil from consuming centers. Mustard seed prices were steady at Rs 5,100/100kg in Jaipur today, whereas mustard oil expeller and Kacchi Ghani were also steady at Rs 905 and Rs 932 respectively.

CPO futures (Sept) is expected to gain further as it has the potential to test 555 levels. Refined soy oil futures (Oct) is likely to witness an upside momentum towards 665 levels. A strong up move was seen in refined soy oil in the spot markets across the country on bullish global cues and improving domestic demand. Moreover, domestic demand is expected to improve ahead of festive season followed by low stock of palm oil at various ports in the country. At domestic market, market participants who were hesitating to make commitment after recent rally, were seen making fresh inquiries sensing tight supply ahead of festive demand.

Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to trade with a downside bias & test 910 levels. Cotton declined in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka due to lackluster demand and bearish cues from overseas market. Mills buying is slow by the mills based in central India and south India. The major south India based mills are mostly rely on imported cotton which they have bought earlier for August shipment. Moreover movement in domestic yarn market is lackluster at the moment due to weak local as well as exports demand due to uncompetitive rates. On the international market, Cotton futures fell & settled down 0.26 cent, or 0.38 percent, at 68.6 cents per lb for the third straight session to the lowest in more than five weeks on Tuesday as speculators continued to liquidate their positions even as wetter weather conditions prevailed in U.S. producing regions.

Mentha oil futures (Aug) may fall further towards 880 levels. The supply is abundant at the spot markets & demand is hand-to-mouth at present.

Guar seed (Oct) may witness a consolidation in the range of 3590-3750 levels, while guar gum (Oct) will possibly trade with a downside bias in the range of 6350-6700 levels. The sentiments have turned bearish due to strong selling amid expectations that sowing may improve after good rainfall in producing belts of Rajasthan and Haryana. The Govt of Rajasthan has declared the latest sowing data up to August 6 as per these data Guar has been cultivated on 20.42 lakh hectares, which is 56 percent of the target area. In Haryana, Guarseed has been cultivated at 2.61 lakh hectares against 3.67 lakh hectares last year.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade