Turmeric likely to trade with a downside bias; Cardamom may fall further
Commodity Online | September 21 2016
UPDATED 09:47:22 IST

MCX Mentha Oil likely to move in a range of 931.1-948.7

MCX Cotton under fresh buying; Support seen at 17950

MCX Aluminium may trade between 141.5-143.9 levels

NCDEX Jeera under fresh selling; Resistance seen at 14140

MCX Nickel likely to move in a range of 1040.5-1072.9

Turmeric futures (Oct) is expected to trade with a downside bias & fall towards 6800 levels. A bearish tone is being witnessed in turmeric at the major trading centers across the country on Tuesday in the absence of any encouraging advices. Demand in turmeric is hand-to-mouth from consuming centers, whereas exports demand is also said to be thin. Only very few upcountry orders were received by one or two traders, said a trader from Erode. The price of the turmeric is steady in other major centres like Warangal, Sangli, Basmatnagar and Duggirala. On the other hand turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh as on September 14 stood at 14,000 hectares, unchanged from last year, while in Telangana it reached was art 46,000 hectares as compared to 41,000 hectares a year ago.

Cardamom futures (Oct) may fall further & test 1120 levels. Harvesting has begun in almost all estates, growers said. Availability of exportable grade 7-8 mm capsules has picked up but the upsurge in its prices to Rs.1,050-1,100 a kg is said to have prompted exporters to slow down buying. The individual auction average has shot up last week and was vacillating between Rs.990 and Rs.1,030 a kg against Rs.860 and Rs.950 the week before.

A downside momentum can be seen in Jeera futures (Oct) as it may descend towards 17350 levels. Cumin seed ruled steady in Unjha market of Gujarat, whereas declined in Rajkot market due to slow demand. In Unjha market prices were steady, however traders market sentiments have turned bearish as they expect sowing to rise 25 percent this season due to better rates. Cumin seed sowing usually starts from October month and harvested in February.

Soybean futures (Oct) might witness an extended downside & test 3180 levels. It is estimated that India is likely to produce over 13.0 mln tn of soybean in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun), up nearly 51% from 8.6 mln tn a year ago, due to favorable weather in key growing regions. The output is seen higher this year despite a marginal fall in sowing as favorable weather condition is seen boosting yield. At the spot markets, demand for raw material remains as per requirement depending on demand for soybean meal, whereas the other by-product soy oil is imported in large quantity for domestic consumption. Soybean prices in various markets traded in range of Rs 2800-3590 per 100kg in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra against Rs 2900-3480 on previous session. On CBOT, U.S. soybeans fell for the first time in five sessions on Wednesday as prices retreated from a near one-month high, though losses were checked by strong demand for U.S. supplies and fears of harvest delays. The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade fell 0.3 percent to $9.86-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.8 percent on Tuesday when prices hit a high of $9.94 a bushel - the strongest since August 25.

Mustard futures (Oct) will possibly face resistance near 4800 levels & the upside may remain capped. Currently, the crush margin continues to remain in disparity due to which demand for raw material is as per requirement. Refined soy oil futures (Oct) may take support near 660 levels.

CPO futures (Sept) may trade higher taking support near 580 levels. The edible oil counters are entering peak festive season when demand for edible oil stayed at high and continuous till Diwali.

Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to take support near 907 levels. Cotton prices further increased at major markets of North India and lower Rajasthan on good demand and tight supply. Mills continued to be active in the market purchasing cotton to meet their immediate requirements and to replenish their stocks. Whereas, tight supply trend continued to reign the market as arrival of kapas at ginneries were delayed with promises of new cotton delivery by September end to the mills.

Sugar futures (Dec) may witness a downfall towards 3650 levels. Special margin of 10% (in cash) imposed on long side of October 2016 contract. Also, special margin of 25% (in cash) on long side of all running contracts (other than October 2016 contract) and yet to be launched contracts. These margins will be in addition to the existing margins and will be effective from beginning of day Thursday, September 22, 2016.

Mentha oil futures (Sept) is expected to fall further towards 872 levels. Mentha oil declined second straight session on Tuesday in Uttar Pradesh due to poor off take and bearish futures. Demand in mentha oil is said to be poor from overseas markets, whereas domestic consumption were also said to slow. Prices are trading in narrow range and unlikely to see any major movement either side in the near term.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade