Turmeric may trade with a downside bias; Jeera likely to fall further
Commodity Online | August 30 2016
UPDATED 09:50:27 IST

NCDEX Chana under fresh buying; Support seen at 5056

MCX Cotton under fresh buying; Support seen at 17950

NCDEX Jeera under fresh selling; Resistance seen at 14140

NCDEX Turmeric under fresh selling; Support seen at 5844

NCDEX Mustard Seed under long liquidation; Resistance seen at 5343

Turmeric futures (Sept) is likely to trade with a downside bias & in the range of 7300- 7600 levels. Spot turmeric prices decreased at Erode markets as traders did not receive any upcountry demand. For the past fifteen days the price of the turmeric is on the decline. Because of the downtrend, the farmers brought very little quantity of turmeric for sale. The southern States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telengana have experienced low rainfall this year, but in Maharashtra, Bengal, Assam and other places the farmers have started sowing the turmeric. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.7,232-8,711 a quintal; the root variety Rs.7,139-8,277.

Cardamom futures (Oct) is likely to witness some extended profit booking & fall towards 1150 levels. Following a sharp rise in prices, which crossed the Rs.1,000/kg mark, major dealers stayed away from the market. At the Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara auction, in Bodinayakannur on Monday, the average price increased to Rs.945.11 a kg from Rs.928.28 last Monday. Total arrivals stood at 19.2 tonnes and of this 17.1 tonnes were sold. The maximum price was Rs.1,239/kg.

Jeera futures (Sept) is likely to fall further towards 17300 levels tracking weak sentiments of the spot markets. Prices of cumin seed were Rs. 25-50/20kg down in Unjha and more or less change in prices were the same in Rajkot. Cumin seed was offered at Rs 16000/100kg lower by Rs 100 from last closing. Export cutting quality material was at 17500/100kg.

The downtrend in soybean futures (Oct) is likely to continue as it can descend down further & test 3200 levels. Slack tone was observed in the prices in the major physical markets of the country. Soybean prices are under pressure amid better crop prospects as good weather condition is expected to increase yield as well. Soybean sowing area this year has reached to last year area on timely and good monsoon rainfall on regular intervals. According to agriculture ministry, soybean sowing has been completed in 112.08 lakh hectare as on 25-Aug against 114.17 lakh hectare during same period last year. On CBOT, November soybeans ended down 3 cents at $9.64-1/4 a bushel. Pro Farmer projected soybean production at a record 4.093 billion bushels, with an average yield of 49.3 bushels per acre. Its estimates topped the USDA's Aug. 12 outlook for a 4.060 billion-bushel crop with a yield of 48.9 bushels per acre.

The downtrend in mustard futures (Sept) may get extended towards 4500-4480 levels. Mustard complex extended fall to an 11-Month low in benchmark Jaipur market of Rajasthan due to slow demand. Mustard oil near-term outlook is weak following slow demand for mustard oil due to higher prices and weakening of other vegetable oil prices.

CPO futures (Sept) is likely to fall towards 545 levels & witness some profit booking from higher levels, while refined soy oil futures (Oct) might fall towards 635 levels as sentiments of edible oil complex on the international markets have turned bearish on better than expected yields and big crop size of soybean. U.S soy oil futures were down nearly 1 percent on rising concern about high production following better than expected yields and output amid good weather condition for U.S soybean seed.

Kapas futures (Apr) might witness further downtrend & test 870 levels. Many mills and spinners have reduced consumption due to the huge losses they incurred due to low yarn sales. Further they may even shut down operation in order to compensate for the losses. Further, they have preferred to consume imported cotton with new deals arriving from West Africa at Rs 40000/candy or 79-80 cents whereas ready delivery imported cotton by MNC offered around Rs 43000-44500/candy.

Sugar futures (Oct) is expected to extend its downtrend & test 3450 levels. The food ministry has asked states to impose stock limit on sugar mills. This will be initially valid for two months--September and October. For September, mills have been asked to keep only 37% of the total supplies, while for Oct, it is 24%. At the spot markets, sugar prices ruled flat on Monday on routine demand and supply. Prices at Vashi dropped by Rs.5-10 a quintal for fair quality, while at naka and mill level prices remained unchanged.

The sentiments of Mentha Oil futures (Sept) are bearish & hence the counter is expected to trade with a downside bias towards 870 levels. Activities in the spot markets are very poor with exporters are sidelined or doing only need base buying.

Guar complex are expected to remain in bearish zone as demand for guarseed and guargum is muted in the spot markets. Buyers are hesitant and waiting for more clear in front of demand and mainly Guargum from foreign market. In Jodhpur market guar seed was offered Rs. 100-150/100kg down at Rs 3,100-3,400/100kg while guar gum traded at Rs 6100/100 kg, lower by Rs 250/100kg from last closing.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade